Where will real estate ecosystem look like in 2020, #ISCF edition

Bill Wendel Public Seen by 264

One of Inman's most popular ambassador's just posted a comment on their Facebook group with a playful reference to "grab your Kool-Aid cup" (actually a plastic beer cup) before hearing the controversial sessions this morning. Here's the schedule for the LIVESTREAM and my response:

http://bit.ly/ICSF_Wed071818

What if you don't "Drink the kool-aid?" Realize it's too early in SF to ask metaphysical questions, but when the head of Keller Williams tells his followers, "We're no longer a brokerage company, we're a data company" I'm not the only to asking, "what's going on?" Reluctant to post this urban dictionary definition of Drinking the Kool-ad because of the METAPHORICAL reference to mass suicide:

http://bit.ly/DrinKoolAid

But it parallels this commentary by industry contrarian Rob Hahn published by Inman News in Feb 2018:

"Either KW has decided that a fast glorious suicide is preferable to slow decline and irrelevance, KW has decided that staking its reputation on a giant lie is good for its brand, or there’s something else going on that I just can’t figure out."

http://bit.ly/LingeringQs

Maybe Keller's perspective will make sense after some coffee and his comments this morning. But note, "Drinking the Kool-Aid" is a problem that applies more broadly to siloed / group thinking in real estate. Some innovators are NOT attending ICSF in person because we've stopped "drinking the kool-aid" by this definition: We no longer "...completely buy into an idea or system, whether good or bad."

Your answers to the question, "Where will the industry be in the year 2020?" - the first question Brad will ask panelist this morning, may reflect what you're drinking, too. Regardless, eager to hear all perspectives. Want to record yours? Let's schedule an interview on #RE2020's Podcast:

http://anchor.fm/RE2020

Jim Battan Fri 20 Jul 2018 2:42AM

Here are my notes from today:

Meet the Innovators: few showed up. No one at Propy or several other tables.

Brad interviews Refkin with Compass. Lots of FUD. Compass doesn’t have to pay back their investors. They’re not running out of money. Their market share is still small. There will be one platform in RE. Who will make it? Want a second source of revenue for the agent. We’re not ready if Amazon enters RE, with 161K broker teams, 800 MLSs, etc. Some communities don’t allow FS signs. His vision is in 10 years, the majority of people buy homes from a Compass agent, plus all other services like mortgage, etc. 6% commissions still because of these ancillary sources. They’ll need billions of dollars more to build their platform. Created a data protection pledge to quell fears. He doesn’t understand what anyone would do with the data. Agents will never go away. Discounters will not take away your clients. Agent experience is better. Bias against agents makes people stupid. People want to know how to get rid of agents and commissions. The model isn’t working. Brokerages are struggling. They’ve received 600K agent applications YTD(!).

Be a Leader or Be A Lemming:
The transactional model is dead. Real estate is all about relationships. Adapt and evolve. Lead and thrive.

A Swedish university education and supervised work practice with a registered estate agent in Sweden is required to become an agent.

Panel with Z, RE/Max, and @properties: the future: DC is focusing on economy, housing market, commissions, tech. Who is today’s consumer? Affordability. Stock market is attracting more money than housing. Lots of VC money. Tech costs more than it delivers. Being a good agent requires both intuition and deep market knowledge. A lot of non-Redfin agents use Redfin’s tech via their app. No one is saying that gross commissions are going up. Be prepared for commissions to compress. Don’t stop that. But it will take a long time.

CEO Connect:
Held at The Strand
About 150 people
* Amy of Z interviews Brad. A dozen people in SFO 13 years ago formed Z. All we hear about now is the customer, disruption, and tech. Everything is changing. Crows vs eagles. Crows flap around and make a lot of noise. Flap around vs targeted strikes. Z’s biggest threat is a startup they haven’t heard about. The real experience is not binary. It’s online/offline, tech/no-tech. He hates getting scooped by Greg. Let’s use our influence to change the world.
* CEO of Red Oak Realty led panel discussion about surviving s big mistake we’ve made. A Houston cop. Delancy St Foundation; long story about being a drug addict. Homicide DA. Surround yourself with people who are different for growth.
* Eric Wu CEO OpenDoor. His typical customer wants convenience and certainty, freedom to move easily. 2K transactions per month in 11 metros. 2/3 of sellers are buying another home. They’ve gone from 10% to 6%. Judgement, advice, and therapy will remain with people. Likes competition. Hard to preserve culture. Believe in on-demand and self-service. Need more trust in the marketplace through their brand. They want to rebuild every step of the transaction from the ground up and be fully integrated. Product/market fit is dynamic.
* Is VC screwing up RE? CEO Rand Realty, Wong @properties, COO eXp, CEO CMLS. VC introduces fear in the market. Only a handful of publicly traded RRE companies. New timers note the talk of protection and not change. VC folks are not of one mind. No scorched earth scenario of just one winner. 11m sides last year. Lots of different approaches. No one wants an illuminated sign. Stop circling the wagons.
* Gen C Connected. Passionate, involved.
* Simon Wendy Bob. What worries me as a RE leader? A first timer said “You are all angry” due to VC money, change. Lots of fraud and scams, increasingly creative and devious. Be curious, courageous, and convicted. Inman Disrupt will be April 8-10 2019 at The Parker.
* We each went on stage and made our predictions for the future. Brad will bury them in Golden Gate Park. Mine: The MLS will be replaced by an extensible customer-centric Open RE Data System.

Where will real estate ecosystem look like in 2020, #ISCF edition

Jim Battan · Fri 20 Jul 2018 2:42AM

Jim Battan Fri 20 Jul 2018 2:42AM