Loomio
July 8th, 2017 22:58

France wants to ban petrol and diesel. Should New Zealand?

Suzie Dawson
Suzie Dawson Public Seen by 666

Ref: https://twitter.com/gauloir/status/883342086551986176

Add your own research links and thoughts below. Once there has been enough spirited discussion, we will table a proposal and everyone can vote on it.

Miriam Mallinder

Miriam Mallinder July 8th, 2017 23:38

The global company for which I work is looking at electric cars as the big future market. Should NZ be at the forefront? I have driven the Toyota Prius which is about 98% electric .. it charges itself, but needs a small amount of petrol to just get it started. It performs really really well, you wouldn't know it wasn't petrol. So .. whether we ban petrol and diesel, the electric revolution will be upon us soon. And we will need an alternative transport. Perhaps the way to go is to encourage the alternatives? (The greens may have a policy on this)

Tane Harre

Tane Harre July 9th, 2017 00:22

OK. France has a lot of nuclear power stations. We don't. To supply the power we would need large scale generation.

In 2017 we have roughly 3754916 vehicles so I am going to round that up to 4,000,000.

Each vehicle uses roughly 3-4 MWh/yr at current tech levels.

4,000,000 x 4 = 16,000,000 MWh/yr or 16000 GWh/yr

Manapouri creates 4800 GWh/yr so we would need another two and a bit Manapouri's to make up for the shortfall. That isn't going to work......

Solar generation in New Zealand has started to double each year so perhaps that might be able to make up the shortfall. It stood at 32.6 GWh/yr in 2015 and assuming continued doubling each year would meet the shortfall by 2024.

(My estimates are a little flaky so someone should check my logic/numbers)

Based on the above I would say if we are to achieve it in an ecologically stable way we would need to;

  • Continue the doubling of solar.
  • All homes should have a solar and battery system that connects to a smart grid in order to spread the load.
  • Battery tech for home storage should be based on Salt Water batteries. Currently the only eco stable battery.
  • Massively upgrade the power system.
  • Swap Manapouri off Tewai Smelter and onto the grid (600 mil from memory).

At a rough guess we could do it by 2025 if we really had to.

Tane Harre

Tane Harre July 9th, 2017 00:36

Miriam Mallinder

Miriam Mallinder July 9th, 2017 02:14

wow that is an amazing and interesting document Tane! OK so I skimmed it until I got to the nuts and bolts on page 45 ... thanks for that!

Colin Smith

Colin Smith July 9th, 2017 07:02

I like the idea but a lot of money will need to be spent on infrastructure.

The vehicles will need to be recharged in public spaces.

An example of this would be supermarket car parks. The car parks would need to be underground cabled to each parking location with a vehicle charger at that location. Then there is the car parking buildings.

There will need to be recharge stations to replace the petrol stations that are located between our cities and towns with waiting facilities for families to entertain themselves while their vehicle recharges.

Just quickly skimmed the Green Policy. Man I would love to have the time available to me to develop reports to that depth.

John Grant

John Grant July 9th, 2017 19:47

Like most things we talk about here, this a little more complicated than it seems on the surface.

If I was to suggest a lot of power for sustaining the current ideas around infrastructure. It would be geothermal l, because we have tons of it, no nuclear needed. I'll fire some links in a future post, but have to address the real issue with solar here:

The centralised Grid is part (most?) of the problem.

PhotoVoltaic (PV aka Solar Panels) are problematic for grid power. It wouldn't work if we were 100% PV with batteries for example.

Grid power is much like a lake of water. When we use power it starts to drain. Then power generation fills the lake up as we drain it. To take this analogy further, the lake (transmission networks) then flows into smaller ponds that are the substations (distribution networks) your more familiar with, and that's how the homes and business drain from. We all have hoses leaking energy out past energy meters to then pay for the power bills. You can't actually say that my power was generated at A or B power plant (sorry powershop). What you can say is you used X power and I want to replace that power with Y generated power (woo thanks poweshop) filling up the lake with power you used.

Keeping that lake filled and working is the transmission and generation problem. PV (Solar) is temperamental and works ONLY when the sun is out. The quality of power provided to the grid is really all over the place and makes the quality of that power really hard to maintain. In the US they're making a new market (actually been for a while) around voltage to help incentivise the power QUALITY (V) over QUANTITY (W) which favours predictable generators who can fill the lake fast with predictable stability.

I know this sounds like I support dirty power, and I don't, this is just the reality of power generation on centralised grids. Grids are part of the problem. They don't scale well with costs. Side note: we have some of the best maintained power in the world btw those guys are awesome.

Micro grids/micro generation. If we have home batteries and PV then we can offset charging our cars. That is dealing with localised power outside of the grid.

Problem with this is it can't be maintained when there is no sun so people need big expensive batteries for doing this.

A hybrid solution could be to generate power in communities with street batteries and PV and wind, topped up or supplying the grid when needed. And that's micro generation. Solving the issue of charging cars/offsetting the energy increase, with smaller community investments that are much cheaper solutions compared with work done on the grid.

If people have less reliance (less draining the lake, less water being generated back in) how does the cost of grid power stay low? As less people need grid power the cost to maintain the lake level won't drop at the same rate. Meaning people who can't have micro generation are left with paying more for grid that is less utilised.

I'll do a follow up on things with links.

My thoughts.
John

Colin England

Colin England July 9th, 2017 22:52

France has a lot of nuclear power stations.

That's really not going to help them. They already use all that power.

To supply the power we would need large scale generation.

Yes, if we only consider personal cars. On the other hand, if we focussed on getting our public transport electrified first we wouldn't need anywhere near as much.

Personally, I think we should be doing all our roads with these solar roads. Considering how many roads we have we'd probably get more than enough generation from them.

Colin England

Colin England July 9th, 2017 22:58

I like the idea but a lot of money will need to be spent on infrastructure.

Not an issue.

In other words, a currency-issuing government can always absorb any outstanding liabilities (public debt) if it chooses, and, effectively, never have to repay the obligation.

It can do that by purchasing these liabilities in secondary bond markets, and then just ignoring the maturity obligations, and with the stroke of a computer keyboard set the value to 0.

Alternatively, it is obvious that such a government is never in danger of defaulting on any outstanding liabilities which remain in the non-government sector until maturity and presentation for repayment.

Alternatively, what this clearly demonstrates, is that such a government never has to issue debt in the first place.

And if we use all our own resources we don't even need international trade.

And, as I said to Tane, if we focus on public transport then the infrastructure build is less to achieve the same end.

Colin England

Colin England July 9th, 2017 23:14

You're making the mistake of thinking that the sun goes out all over the place during the day when it doesn't. You're also assuming that we'd only use solar when we already have so much hydro, wind and geothermal.

To do renewables properly requires using all of them and probably having some sort battery system. During the day with the sun out we'd wouldn't be using the hydro lakes. In fact, if they're low we may consider pumping back into them from down stream (that would be dependent upon how much could be taken from the rivers while keeping them healthy). At night we could then draw on the hydro lakes essentially using them as a battery.

With the correct blend of renewables and storage we could easily get smooth power provision.

BTW, there's a limit to geothermal as well and that comes down to maintaining ground water.

As less people need grid power the cost to maintain the lake level won't drop at the same rate. Meaning people who can't have micro generation are left with paying more for grid that is less utilised.

And that is why we need to turn power back into a government service. We'd have it so that each account holder got a block of power to use free and anything above that they had to pay for. Power infrastructure would be paid for by everyone through taxes.

Miriam Mallinder

Miriam Mallinder July 10th, 2017 00:42

@John Grant

The big problem I see with your proposal is that we use a centralised grid at all. If we were all allowed to use our own solar or wind or water etc power we would be self sufficient and not at all reliant on government for power itself. I believe that at the moment if you are self sufficient with power you are still charged? I am not sure I just heard that somewhere ... it might be in a different country, it might be in the thought process ... but I would not like to go that way.

On ENERGY itself I think we can be incentivised to be independent, rather than DEpendent.

I worked for Mighty River Power for a short time and learned about how power was uploaded to the grid. It is done like a currency trader, the power company SELLS to the grid when the price is right, then it sends a message to the appropriate power station (eg one of the ones on the Waikato) to release some water (which empties it's reservoir but sends it to the reservoir of the next station on the river .. ) to provide the power.

Solar and wind, you are right, they are not so reliable but they are viable (just look at all the wind farms we have now).

And I agree with Colin, power is saved in batteries.

@Colin England

Correct, there is a limit to geothermal, not to mention its effect on our Tourism industry!

I would rather a policy on our waterways .. back to basics .. actually ... (just saying)

Colin England

Colin England July 10th, 2017 08:35

On ENERGY itself I think we can be incentivised to be independent, rather than DEpendent.

It really is better to be inter-dependent and part of the national smart grid. That would make the load balancing of the variable renewables across the nation easier and cheaper (a national grid will actually use less resources) for everyone.

Miriam Mallinder

Miriam Mallinder July 10th, 2017 08:41

ooh Colin really? Are you not sick of the Power Companies extorting us? The more independent we all are of government and big corporate profits the better. This is why we need a RESPONSIVE govt. This is what the Internet Party stands for !!!

Tane Harre

Tane Harre July 10th, 2017 09:19

@miriammallinder I agree with Colin on having a grid. The grid allows industry to be decentralised for starters. There are also some non technical reasons. I feel it would be too easy for the poor to end up with no power and no way for the government to know.

In the long term I think that we will drop the outlying grid off but this will have definite impacts on rural areas, pumping, milking sheds, farming operations, mining, etc...heavy equipment in a purely solar environment is nearly impossible at current technology.

The solar roads idea is fantastic though, and uses current tech. That should be a part of an electric vehicle policy.

Miriam Mallinder

Miriam Mallinder July 10th, 2017 09:26

ok, so long as there is a plan to be less controlling ... this is my issue:

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/94561996/faced-with-skyrocketing-power-bills-kiwis-opt-not-to-use-heaters--survey

I also love solar roads :)

Colin England

Colin England July 10th, 2017 22:22

I'd get rid of the profit making corporations and return power to being a government service that everyone is entitled to.

And that is why we need to turn power back into a government service. We'd have it so that each account holder got a block of power to use free and anything above that they had to pay for. Power infrastructure would be paid for by everyone through taxes.

Tane Harre

Tane Harre July 11th, 2017 00:52

I take it by the discussion moving to how should New Zealand do it instead of should we do it everybody is keen on the idea? Is anybody not keen?

Miriam Mallinder

Miriam Mallinder July 11th, 2017 00:59

I'm confused now!

Tane Harre

Tane Harre July 11th, 2017 06:37

:) Suzie's question, paraphrased, asked if we should follow suit with France and ban petrol and diesel. We all appear to have answered as 'how we could' instead of 'if we should' so I was wondering if we are all for it even if the implementation needs to be worked out.

Colin England

Colin England started a proposal July 11th, 2017 07:50

Ban use of petrol and diesel vehicles Closed 7:01pm - Friday 14 Jul 2017

Climate change is a serious concern. A large amount of GHG gas emissions is from the burning of fossil fuels for transport. To meet our moral obligations of reducing our GHG emissions we should ban the use of diesel and petrol vehicles.

Results
Agree - 5
Abstain - 0
Disagree - 1
Block - 0
6 people have voted (0%)
Colin England

Colin England
Agree
July 11th, 2017 07:51

We need to do this.

Jo Booth

Jo Booth
Abstain
July 11th, 2017 20:23

I'd love to see this happen, but can't see how it could work for me personally in the next 6 months.

Tane Harre

Tane Harre
Agree
July 12th, 2017 01:04

If France can do it so can we. Especially by 2045.

Suzie Dawson

Suzie Dawson July 12th, 2017 08:49

Re Tane's comment on 2045... if we still have a functioning ecosystem to protect by 2045 it will be nothing short of a miracle! Whole towns in China and parts of the Gulf of Mexico are already biological dead zones, the Great Barrier Reef is next...

I think we need to do a lot more than we are (general statement - applies to all humankind) and a lot faster!

Suzie Dawson

Suzie Dawson
Agree
July 12th, 2017 08:50

I wouldn't tie this to climate change or any specific emissions reductions schemes/agreements but just to the basic fact that fossil fuels poison the planet and clean energy should be subsidised, readily available, and as heavily utilised as possible

Colin Smith

Colin Smith
Agree
July 12th, 2017 08:59

Jo Booth

Jo Booth
Agree
July 13th, 2017 05:42

I'd love to see this happen, but can't see how it could work for me personally in the next 6 months. A longer term aim - to give time to develop renewable infrastructure sounds fine

Dennis Dorney

Dennis Dorney
Disagree
July 13th, 2017 06:48

Tane Harre

Tane Harre July 13th, 2017 08:04

@dennisdorney At last, someone disagreed :) Why though? It seems like a good idea to me.

Dennis Dorney

Dennis Dorney July 14th, 2017 05:12

My reasons are that it would be impossible to implement in a short time frame and could therefore lead to chaos. And in the longer term electric self drive cars will come in much faster that predicted (petrol driven cars will be unsaleable by 2030 IMO), so its a risky venture with no great benefit.

Miriam Mallinder

Miriam Mallinder July 14th, 2017 09:34

I don't think we need to ban petrol and diesel, they are already starting to become obsolete ... good job too!

Mad Kiwi

Mad Kiwi July 14th, 2017 12:00

These Electric Vehicles need a lot of Precious Metals such as Platinum which will lead to more exploitation, which involves things like Child Labour & destruction of the environment,
We should look at how we can recycle our E waste as well as encouraging ethical alternatives such as Bio fuel technologies. I don't think (outright banning) it is responsible or realistic in the short term.

https://www.platts.com/latest-news/metals/orlando-florida/electric-vehicles-will-change-demand-for-precious-21011964

Colin England

Colin England July 14th, 2017 23:43

Honda develops hybrid motor without key rare-earth metals

TOKYO -- Honda Motor Co. has developed a new electric motor for hybrid vehicles that tackles two top challenges in manufacturing the crucial drivetrain component: The high cost and uncertain supply of the rare-earth metals used in their powerful magnets.

The key is a new motor not using any heavy rare-earth metals, such as dysprosium or terbium. The breakthrough frees Honda from being at the mercy of supply bottlenecks of the sparsely distributed metals and increasing prices as demand for them soars.

Not that I think personal electric vehicles are a good idea as a starting point. Do the public transport first then we can wean people off of the highly inefficient personal vehicles.

Suzie Dawson

Suzie Dawson July 14th, 2017 23:50

that's a really interesting point re materials.

Suzie Dawson

Suzie Dawson July 14th, 2017 23:51

Since we have a decision that yes we want to ban petrol and diesel, I will create a new thread re how :)